A renowned historian who accurately predicted almost every Presidential race since 1984 has revealed what could be in store for the 2024 election if Joe Biden goes up against Donald Trump.
Historian Allan Lichtman developed a formula known as the “Keys to the White House” that he used to make predictions about the 2024 election.
The formula consists of 13 true or false questions, which says he is a strong indicator of who will win in 2024.
Each of the questions is about the two nominees.
If “true,” they are given a key; if “false,” their competitor receives the point.
According to Lichtman, Biden holds five keys while Trump currently has about three, which leaves five keys and enough room for Trump to secure a lead before November.
As detailed by Lichtman’s course at American University, the keys consist of the following:
Party mandate
Contest
Incumbency
Third party
Short term economy
Long term economy
Policy change
Social unrest
Scandal
Foreign/military failure
Foreign/military success
Incumbent charisma
Challenger charisma
Biden gains on automatic points due to him being the incumbent president. He was also granted another key for not appearing to have any significant third-party or independent primary challenge.
Biden was also granted “keys” for having “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms,” as well as implementing policy changes during his term.
Meanwhile, Trump secured key number one due to Republicans holding a majority in the House of Representatives.
The former president also secured key number 12 due to Biden’s non-existent charisma.
He also noted that Trump could gain another point if Biden fails to have “a major success in foreign or military affairs.”
Lichtman also accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 and the 2020 U.S. presidential elections.
He has also accurately predicted every presidential matchup since 1984, with the exception of the 2000 election, where he predicted a victory for Al Gore, who ultimately lost to Republican George W. Bush.
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