CNN’s top polling analyst admitted that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is doing much better than current polling suggests, similar to the scenario that unfolded before he beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
During a recent segment, CNN analyst Harry Enten said that looking back at the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the polls were significantly off in terms of indicating Trump’s support across the country.
“So, August 13th, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? And this is in 2016 and 2020,” he said.
“Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016.”
“How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off. Look at this: he was underestimated by five points on average.”
Enten noted that Kamala Harris‘ lead over Trump in those states was lower, only four points, than how much the former president was underestimated by polls.
“The bottom line is this. If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it,” he said.
“Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift, like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win,” he said.
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“I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years.”
He also noted that Harris; current momentum from media hype may translate to something other than people showing up to vote for her.
“So, the bottom line here is, yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we’re not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain to vote,” he said.
“And one little other note: Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016.”
“So, the bottom line is, yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go,’ he said.
“The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn’t actually shifted and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point.”
